Same information - but 100x value?

I see people all the time on the DataGolf forum saying things like:

"Can DataGolf add round score predictions?"

or

"Can you add xyz sportsbook?"

I always shake my head because these people misunderstand how the value of the same information can vary.

Let's use the strokes prediction example. A good stroke prediction can be very valuable, so it's understandable why people would ask DataGolf for it.

But here is the problem...

A good stroke prediction on DataGolf is next to useless. For $40 a month, the sportsbooks can set their strokes markets. And soon, you would only be betting in situations when DataGolf is missing something.

To better illustrate this point, if I had to choose between:

- Paying DataGolf $5,000 a month to be the only person with their stroke predictions (assuming they remove info needed to calc it easily)

or

- Paying $40 a month to have the stroke predictions posted to the website

The $5,000 agreement is FAR more valuable. And it's for the EXACT SAME information! You would make more money paying 100x for the same information.

People who want to make a lot of money shouldn't want a stroke prediction on DataGolf. They should want a stroke prediction that only they have. What they should want from DataGolf are the tools needed to build a stroke prediction. And - they have those. Their API is the best golf API, and you can start with a simple stroke prediction calculation using a few numbers from their API and site.

You want the lab, not the product

I write these newsletters with a more advanced bettor in mind. I imagine you must have some monetary goals in this industry if you have stumbled across this (slightlyyyy dry) newsletter. Having stroke predictions on DataGolf might be the best case scenario for some novice bettors. Bettors that are looking to lose a little/ break even get value from having good public info. But it shouldn’t be that valuable to a Risk Takers Digest reader!

Good, cheap, public info benefits recreational gamblers tired of losing the juice (or more). But serious gamblers buy the tools that help them find the information no one has.

But what info do we want? Check out my below power rankings of sports betting info by type. You can see that at some point the list shifts from "data" to "spoon-fed picks". That point where the list flips is

My "information" tiers list:

Tier 1:

- Info from someone reliable and connected to the sporting league. "So and so is injured, but playing through it" or "The coach lost the locker-room and the team isn't trying".

- Info scraped from an amazing database that's really hard to scrape

- Hand recorded data that is unique (aka you can hand record homeruns - but that data isn't unique, it's widely available).‍

Tier 2:

- Scraped data

- Niche news articles or player interviews

- Custom top-down alerts (think discord bots, but you created them and set the params)

- Traded info w/ another sharp

‍Tier 3:

- API

- Market price/ limit history (SpankOdds)

- Info on what a certain group/ sharp is on (this is usually SO unreliable - would be ranked higher if you knew it's solid and can reverse engineer them).

Tier 4:

- Optimizers w/ fair values calculated

- Discord bots that send picks

- Arb-alert programs

- Sold picks

So what's the TLDR?‍

The point of this newsletter is to challenge how you think about information. Information is the main driver of Alpha. But that Alpha only exists for market participants that have information others don't. We want to be the market participants with the secret info.

It's why I think creating a betting product for the bettor is so hard. You make it too easy for people to win - and suddenly no one wins. (insert Incredibles quote here). This includes giving out picks, odds screens that alert to arbitrage, or odds screens w/ their own fairs.

Now - that type of product is best for 95% of bettors...it's time consuming to find your own good info (hint: work with others!). But I wanted to create a product for the other 5%. A product that tip the odds as much as possible in your favor of creating a sustainable sports betting income. One that is based on your own info, market expertise and network.

If you are interested in trying GP Academy, I recommend signing up now while we are still offering the 14-day free trial. (Soon we will switch to either a yearly or quarterly plan)

Cheers friends - currently sending this on a nine hour flight. Stay tuned for a flurry of work that will inevitably come from me being locked up with my laptop for 9 hours…