Is this information “baked in”?

"You're so stupid - taking under on Lebron when he always kills the Mavericks"

In sports betting (and trading) it is important to determine if certain information is "baked in".

What does "baked in" mean?

It means that the information is already reflected in the sportsbook's line. For example you might hear the following from someone discussing a player prop.

"Why are we taking the under on X player when the total for the game is 230?"

This information is baked in. A total line for a sportsbook is visible and easy to pull into a player prop model. Totals are a key ingredient of almost every player prop model.

So what other information is baked in? Here are a few rules of thumb to use when determining if information is baked in or not.

• The information is easily quantifiable
• The information is widely available
• The information has a large sample size

What is a good example?

Let's say we have a player prop on Lebron James playing against a healthy Dallas Mavericks. If you think that Lebron is a lock to go over because the Mavericks aren't good at defense - you're likely wrong.

Why?‍

1. The information is easily quantifiable. You look at the standings and see Dallas gives up almost 120 points a game. If it's easy for you to plug in, it's easy for the sportsbook.

2. The information is widely available. Everyone can find out that Dallas doesn't have a great defense in 30 seconds.

3. The information has a large sample size (I don't know if this is true for this example). The reason I specified that Dallas was healthy was to say this isn't an outlier situation. If two starting players on Dallas are out - this is different.

Then you may have a better read on how minutes will get distributed (coaching interviews, combing old box scores, etc..).

So next time you catch yourself immediately reacting to a prop that someone recommends or a bet you see posted on PrizePicks...

Ask yourself - is the information I am weighing right now baked in?